Assessing Severity: The Index’s Four Indicators For example, a person in Ukraine is currently twice as likely to be killed by political violence as a person in Mali or the Central African Republic. However, in Haiti, a much smaller country that is characterized by no current central government, gangs control much of the capital city of Port-au-Prince and several food and health crises have worsened due to persistent violence and unrest.Ĭonflicts can also differ with respect to the proportion of events and fatalities and the risks faced by different communities. The violence in Mozambique is clustered in its northern, less populated areas and supported by a global jihadi network: the prospect of its future diffusion is what concerns most analysts. In Haiti and Mozambique, for example, the conflict event rate is consistent (close to 500 political violence events per year), but the violence is dangerous to their respective communities and governments in very different ways. Mexico, meanwhile, is plagued by a political-criminal violence nexus that generated the largest number of civilian targeting events in the world in 2022, and which lacks a clear political or military/security solution.Ĭonflicts that have similar rates of intensity are rarely similar in other ways. In Nigeria, the Islamic State insurgency (formerly dominated by Boko Haram) in the North East region accounts for 13% of the country’s political violence, while the majority is committed by dozens of militias fighting for local authority and control over territory and populations, especially in the North West and Middle Belt regions. Myanmar’s conflicts, for example, involve hundreds of non-state armed groups fighting against a military junta and joining several ethnic-based rebel organizations that have been active for decades. Many other countries experienced high event and fatality counts through more varied violent circumstances. Ukraine ranks at the top on both lists due to a devastating conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian state militaries. ![]() The countries with the most conflict-related fatalities were Ukraine (over 28,000 fatalities), Myanmar (over 19,000), Nigeria (over 10,600), Mexico (over 7,700), and Yemen (over 6,700). In 2022, the most intense levels of violence measured by total event count alone were reported in Ukraine (over 34,400 events), Syria (over 10,400), Myanmar (over 9,300), Brazil (over 7,900), Mexico (over 7,100), and Yemen (over 6,400). Others focus on characteristics and assessments of ‘fragility,’ and do not sufficiently account for political violence and its variations. Many existing indices are based on event and fatality counts, which – when evaluated on their own, isolated from aggravating factors and local context – can often distort the size and impact of conflict for different communities and states. Such a measure must recognize multifarious local complexities and extract important patterns that can inform strategic and operational decision-making. Determining which countries meet a severity threshold has tangible implications for what kinds of violence are seen and responded to – and where. To mitigate these threats, all manner of stakeholders – including policymakers, analysts, civil society organizations, businesses, and the media – require unbiased, straightforward, and reliable assessments of conflict severity. Multiple types of violence often occur in the same country at the same time, exposing the public and state to several, simultaneous threats. These incidents ranged from mob attacks on political party supporters and assassinations of local authorities, to state killings, insurgent clashes, and cartel violence. 1 This statistic was calculated using ACLED data on locations with at least one political violence event in 2022 with WorldPop’s global population data collected at 1km² scale. In 2021, the latest year for which comparable population data are available, ACLED estimates that up to 20% of the world’s population – roughly 1.7 billion people – were exposed to political violence. ![]() Globally, more than 125,700 political violence events took place in 2022, leading to over 145,500 reported fatalities. Accounting for the Complexity of ConflictĬonflict is complex and widespread.
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